Articles via Databases
Articles via Journals
Online Catalog
E-books
Research & Information Literacy
Interlibrary loan
Theses & Dissertations
Collections
Policies
Services
About / Contact Us
Administration
Littman Architecture Library
This site will be removed in January 2019, please change your bookmarks.
This page will redirect to https://digitalcommons.njit.edu/dissertations/796 in 5 seconds

The New Jersey Institute of Technology's
Electronic Theses & Dissertations Project

Title: Analytical model for staging emergency evacuations
Author: Korikanthimath, Vivek V.
View Online: njit-etd2006-119
(xx, 163 pages ~ 6.7 MB pdf)
Department: Executive Committee for the Interdisciplinary Program in Transportation
Degree: Doctor of Philosophy
Program: Transportation
Document Type: Dissertation
Advisory Committee: Chien, I-Jy Steven (Committee chair)
Bladikas, Athanassios K. (Committee member)
Spasovic, Lazar (Committee member)
Daniel, Janice Rhoda (Committee member)
Mouskos, Kyriacos (Committee member)
Date: 2006-08
Keywords: Staged evacuation
Simultaneous evacuation
Evacuation time
Delay
Behavioral response
Practicability of staging
Availability: Unrestricted
Abstract:

Disaster response in areas of high population density is centered on the efficient evacuation of people and possibly goods. Developing evacuation plans suitable for different levels of urgency based on the intensity of threat is a challenging task. In case of densely populated cities (e.g., New York, Los Angeles), the level of threat is enhanced by the congestion of their transportation systems, and the decision to evacuate a region simultaneously or by dividing it into multiple stages (or zones) affects the required evacuation time and associated delays.

The evolution of the traffic conditions on the evacuation route can vary significantly based on the type of evacuation strategy employed (i.e., simultaneous or staged). In this dissertation, mathematical models are developed for estimating evacuation time and delay. Evacuation time is the time for evacuating all vehicles from a designated region, while delay includes queuing and moving delays incurred by evacuees. The base model handles a uniform demand distribution over the evacuation route and deterministic evacuees' behavior. The relationship between delay and evacuation time is investigated, and the impact of a staged versus a simultaneous evacuation is analyzed. A numerical method is adopted to determine the optimal number of staging zones. A sensitivity analysis is conducted of parameters (e.g., demand density, access flow rate, and evacuation route length) affecting evacuation time and delay.

To account for the heterogeneous demand distribution over the evacuation region and evacuees' behavioral responses to an evacuation order (e.g., fast, medium, and slow), a more realistic model is developed by enhancing the base model. Based on a numerical searching process, the enhanced model determines the optimal time windows and lengths of individual staged zones dependent on the demand distribution, behavioral response, and evolution of traffic conditions on the evacuation route. The applicability of the model is demonstrated with a numerical example. Results indicate that evacuation time and delay can be significantly reduced if a staged evacuation can be appropriately implemented.

Finally, the impact of compliance is investigated. Compliance is defined as the conformity of a staged zone to its demand loading pattern. It is found that the level of compliance and deviation from scheduled access time influence the effectiveness of staging. Further, a method to revise the optimal staging scheme to accommodate the noncompliant demand is illustrated.

The models developed in this research can serve as useful tools to provide suitable guidelines for emergency management authorities in making critical decisions during the evacuation process.


If you have any questions please contact the ETD Team, libetd@njit.edu.

 
ETD Information
Digital Commons @ NJIT
Theses and DIssertations
ETD Policies & Procedures
ETD FAQ's
ETD home

Request a Scan
NDLTD

NJIT's ETD project was given an ACRL/NJ Technology Innovation Honorable Mention Award in spring 2003